The first day is here and the Yankees and Aaron Judge have not made any arrangements for a long-term extension.In fact, they Also There are no transactions. The judge was 12th when the Yankees avoided arbitration with 11 of the 12 eligible players last month. This means that the hearing will take place during the season unless both parties agree first.
Needless to say, one might say, as the judge’s free agent is approaching at the end of the season. Bad atmosphere.. Of course, none of them prevent a sudden turn. The judge firmly decided that the opening round was his deadline, but there is no official one about it, and given the arbitration situation, his agents and team are mostly obliged to speak in the coming weeks anyway. is not. There is still a way for the judge to end this story by wearing pinstripes for years to come.
In any case, this isn’t the conversation that Yankees fans literally wanted to do 90 minutes before the season began. This is a big problem and no matter how it is resolved, it will affect the franchise for years. Where does it leave them-and a judge?
One of the things that makes this unique is that you have a very solid idea of what the offer is. Incredibly, when the Yankees GM Brian Cashman said he offered $ 213.5 million for seven years, he offered $ 17 million in the 2022 season, and the entire package was about 230 million for eight years. I made it into dollars.
On the surface, this offer seems reasonable enough. There is a big warning about this that will be explained shortly. Judges are arguably one of the few true superstars in the game. Since the breakout in 2017, he has been the second-ranked fielder after Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and José Ramirez, finishing fourth in the Wins Above Replacement.
With so much emphasis on his elite power, it’s easy to claim that he’s actually some UnderestimationBecause he is also a plus fielder. His above-average +19 outs have not only been in the top 25 outfielders since 2017, but are also well-rounded by midfielders. Few players are as talented and productive as judges. You can’t simply replace him.
However, he turned 30 later this month and has been injured long enough to play more than 115 games only twice in 2017 and 21. (It’s true that there were only 60 games in 2020, but I missed more than half because of a calf injury anyway.)
In addition, the history of players as big as judges and Stanton who remain healthy until their thirties, as discussed almost 10 years ago when the Marlins were trying to sign an extension to Giancarlo Stanton, is relatively poor. The judge is stated to be 6 feet 7 pounds and 282 pounds. Given the uncertainty about these age numbers, look at the history of all players over 6 feet 6 or over £ 250 to see what they’ve done since the season after the age of 30.
It shows that it may not be enough information to actually tell us how rare a player like Judge has been in history, and what his future looks like. increase. (If you omit the weight requirement and look at 6 feet 6 and above, Dave Winfield’s 29.6 WAR, Dave Kingman’s 6.9 WAR, and Richie Sexon’s 5.4 WAR will also be added.)
Stanton isn’t that big, but similar, but when he signed a 13-year deal with Miami, it was after the 24-year-old season. In seven seasons, he showed the production of MVP calibers with ongoing injury problems. He donated 22.5 WARs, a little over 3 WARs each season. Assuming the acquisition was made in 2028, he would be in debt of an additional $ 189 million by 2027.
If you find it difficult for judges to outperform this offer in the open market, do so. The team is increasingly revealing that transactions over 10 years are reserved for the youngest star (Wander Franco, 20 years old, etc.). Fernando Tatis Jr., 22, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, 26 each). .. (Anyway, for the team, they were a natural reward for superstar players.)
However, although I said there is a caveat here, there are actually two. First, you can’t find another judge. If he isn’t in your lineup, he’s (probably) worse than him. Second, the Yankees haven’t added star-positioned players to their recent prime, choosing not to sign Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Freddie Freeman, or trading and extending Matt Olson. Instead, it settled on a much lower level of movement, all after not signing Harper or Machado in the last few years.
Yankees fans probably expected both, a high-priced free agent will arrive When The judge will be extended. It probably didn’t happen, but isn’t it either? Not surprisingly, it will be a pill that is difficult for fans to swallow.
What does adding a judge mean to the free agent market?
What if the judge reaches a free agent? It should be pointed out that simply entering the market is not profitable. Two years ago, after a great season with the Yankees, DJ LeMahieu wasn’t signed until January 15, 2021 before agreeing to return the six-year contract.
No one is nearby. There are options other than the outfield-Trea Turner and Max Muncy may be perfect, and if he opts out of his twin deal as expected, he may have a second chance at Corea-but who? Is not a judge either. There is no other judge. Whether it’s the Yankees or elsewhere, a healthy judge will be the top outfield option available this winter.
What would the Yankees do without him?
Garo is also an imminent free agent, and the 2023 Yankees outfield depth chart is now … composed of Stanton and Aaron Hicks. In the Yankees’ Top 15 outlook, no outfielder is currently outperforming the A-ball, so it’s unlikely that reinforcements will come inside. The Yankees need to add an outfielder, whether it’s a judge’s New Deal, a free agent from the list above, or an unexpected deal yet, because it’s just not going to reduce it. ..
The judge may just want to test the market to get the opportunity he has heard. He may be ready to play somewhere. How disastrous the Yankees gave Jacoby Ellsbury (entering the 30-year-old season), and how much in the three seasons since Hicks signed his own seven-year contract. You may remember if you missed your time.
Ultimately, this represents gambling on each side. Judges are gambling, spending a healthy and productive season, exploring market value, as well as having the freedom to choose where to call home, market as the best outfielder available To enter. When he is in his thirties, he is at risk of another injury. The Yankees are betting on what their future will be if they lose him. Not to mention the disappointment of the fan base if he departs without another star.
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