Democrats have a slight advantage (0.5 points) over Republicans in the “popular vote,” which asks voters which party to support in Congress. Earlier this year, Democrats led by as much as 2.7 points, according to political website FiveThirtyEight. Michael Podhorzer, the former head of the AFL-CIO’s Political Department, crunched the numbers and found that going back a quarter of a century, a sitting president’s political party almost always held its place. getting worse at this point. (The only exception was 2018, when Republicans performed poorly all year.)
And polls show Democratic voter “enthusiasm” has pulled away from Republican levels even in recent weeks, closing an earlier gap. And the data are supported by anecdotal evidence. High Democratic voter turnout in contested primaries, biased rejection of pregnancy imperatives in Kansas, recent special elections in Minnesota and Nebraska showed Joe Biden in his 2020 A dramatic outperformance for the Democratic candidate.
Let’s pause here for the usual warnings. This is just a snapshot and things may change. Democrats are still likely to lose the House. Defending their four-seat advantage is almost impossible. The Republican spending barrage is coming.
But now, 84 days after the election, the big red wave looks like a ripple. This is because voters are repeatedly reminded why they were unhappy during the Trump era.
Republican lawmakers and candidates, and their Fox News echo chambers, once again wrapped themselves around the former president in a hysterical reaction to the court-ordered search for Mar-a-Lago. Violent stories (followed by threats and actual violence), attacks on the rule of law (“destroy the FBI), their conspiracy theories (FBI planted evidence?), and their reckless defense of being unguarded (probably stealing nuclear secrets) are all reenactments of President Trump. Republican officials did much the same when faced with the commission’s devastating revelations on Jan. 6.
QAnon, Orth Keepers, and extremist candidates linked to the Jan. 6 events dominate the Republican primary. Numerous election naysayers have become Republican nominees for governor, secretary of state, and other offices. A few truth-tellers were banished. Rep. Liz Cheney (Republican-Wyoming) could lose on Tuesday, which means that eight of his 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump will leave Congress.
Overthrow of the Supreme Court Law vs. WadeIt deprived Americans of basic rights made possible by the three Trump appointments. Since then, the surge in extreme bans against abortion without exception on grounds of rape, incest, or maternal health has shocked its brutality.
Add to these unwelcome reminders of what MAGA means, and easing inflation, falling gas prices, and a string of legislative successes on President Biden’s agenda have pushed the unemployment rate to its lowest level in 50 years. , and Republican claims that Biden and the Democratic Congress are powerless have slowed. has no effect.
FiveThirtyEight handicapper Nate Silver asks, “Will this be an Asterisk election?” But exceptions to historical patterns may also be the current rule.
Midterm elections have historically been contests with low voter turnout determined by differences in partisan enthusiasm. Overflowing. (Few voters move from one party to another.) For decades, voter turnout ranged from 37% for him to 42% for him.
But the Trump era blew away the old model. In the 2018 midterm elections, turnout he soared to 50%. Voter turnout in 2020 broke another record. And because most Americans reject Trumpism, Democrats tend to win elections with high turnout. Hillary Clinton added his 3 million votes in 2016, House Democrats his 9 million votes in 2018, and Biden his 7 million votes in 2020.
Now we are seeing signs of high voter turnout elections again. Republican voters were already in high spirits before the Mar-a-Lago hunt. Now Democratic voters, many of whom were frustrated with Trump’s lack of accountability, despite the committee’s revelations on Jan. 6, seem to align with them passionately.
In early February, when the Democratic Party was in the doldrums, Podhorzer, the former political director of the AFL-CIO, wrote: “
It looks like that’s exactly what is happening.
