Jonathan Lao
The Russian-Ukraine War has entered its third week and there are no signs of an end.
Despite three meetings between Russian and Ukrainian delegations, no substantial breakthrough has been made during the ongoing bloodshed and expulsion of humans. The effects of the war have already manifested themselves in rising global commodity prices, especially crude oil and wheat, and there has been logistical turmoil. A huge human crisis leading to the migration of about 2 million people from Ukraine is putting pressure on neighboring counties.
India, the world’s largest democracy, is concerned that it is at stake due to the Russian-Ukraine war. It is close to both Russia and Ukraine, and hopers believe that any dispute between the two sovereign states should be resolved through dialogue, not war. The Prime Minister of India met with the leaders of two war-torn countries, as did neighboring countries like Hungary. India’s response to the war and the subsequent abstention of voting for UN resolutions can be seen as a responsible, neutral and human position on this issue. India insisted in front of the leaders of the war-torn country to create a human corridor to allow civilians to leave the war-torn areas with their Ukrainian students. India has also sent a very strong message as a responsible country by encouraging students from neighboring Pakistan and Nepal.
As the world’s fastest growing economy, India is concerned about the economic impact of war on the world economy, especially Russia, Ukraine and Europe, which have deep ties to India. The turmoil in the global commodity supply chain, especially crude oil, gas and wheat, cannot successfully facilitate the recovery of the early global economy after COVID-19. India believes that two war-torn countries, which have long shared a common history and culture, should open the window for fruitful dialogue.
Unlike others, India does not stand by or fall into a game of blame. Many Western nations have accused Russia of invading sovereign states, but China has accused NATO of causing a war between Russia and Ukraine in his statement. Blame games often reduce the chances of finding a solution to a problem. Under Russia and Ukraine, it is clear that there was an unmistakable war analogy for hegemony between superpowers that refreshed the memory of the Cold War.
Russia’s concerns about the presence of NATO troops in the backyard need to be understood, but nothing justifies the war. India appreciates Russia’s concerns, but does not endorse violent ways to solve the problem. The efforts of the United States and its NATO partners to contain a superpower like Russia, claiming that it is an arrogant, dictatorial and irresponsible force, leads to a vicious circle and counterarguments and only exacerbates the situation. ..
China, Israel and Turkey have issued instructions to mediate negotiations between the two countries at war. But these countries are not as credible as intermediaries. China maintains ties with Russia, but implicitly Turkey is known to have played in both Russia and its western allies.
It would be very difficult for Israel to prove that it is neutral between Russia and the United States. Because it has long been an ally, especially in the context of geopolitics in the Middle East.
The global economy, which has shown a “green shoot” of economic recovery under the influence of the Covid Pandemic recession, is under new threat. India is concerned that the continued spillover of this proportion of war could jeopardize the world’s efforts to achieve the goals of sustainable development.
A series of sanctions, including exclusions from the SWIFT imposed on Russia, will not only affect Russia, but all countries, including EU countries with close ties to Russia. Sanctions significantly disrupt Russia’s ability to receive import and export payments and cripple cross-border financial transactions, but Russia’s major trading partners, including European countries, also have Russia’s oil and gas. You will face difficulties in paying for imports.
A recent U.S. president’s speech that people should be ready to pay for the cause of democracy as global commodity prices, including crude oil and wheat, have reached new highs, has solved the problem. I’m not so relieved towards it. Inflationary pressure will make life difficult for poor households around the world.
Many Asian economies, including India, import most of their energy demand, and a sharp rise in crude oil prices will put great pressure on the balance of payments. In particular, the Indian economy is treated as a driving force for the global economic recovery after Covid, so such a surge will have a significant impact on growth and price stability. China also cannot afford to enjoy as a silencer from Russia’s challenge to the United States and its allies in the game of hegemony. Due to its strategic position, Ukraine is very important to China as a gateway to Europe and the European Union, and the war will affect the supply of minerals and agricultural products in both directions. Ukraine is an important hub within the BRI that Kyiv joined in 2017. Chinese companies operating in Ukraine, such as BeinkewEnergy, Xinjiang Communications Construction Group and Weldatlantic Group, also record disruptions.
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