The Russian war to dismantle Ukraine sent a shock wave that rattled Montana.
Through video conferences, church rallies, court rallies, and economic reactions, the repercussions of the war, 5,400 miles away, are influencing here. And those ripples can grow into waves as the battle progresses.
Clint Walker, a professor of Russian studies at the University of Montana, said: “But the question is how to get there. We have relied on this Cold War model of US domination and sphere of influence.”
Walker was one of several experts to share his views on the situation in Ukraine through an online rally at the UM Mansfield Center last week. The war was only a week ago, but the Cuban Missile Crisis was revived when Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to take nuclear action against enemies outside Ukraine.
In the age of global social media, this conflict exists sooner than past crises. Twitter and Facebook did not exist when the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, launched the United States’ attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq.
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Last week, Missoulians were talking to a former University of Montana colleague who is currently connected from refugee centers in Moscow and Poland.
UM graduate and Ukrainian professor Oksana Nezhyvenko spoke to hundreds of Mansfield Center audiences on Wednesday the day after crossing the Polish border with her one-year-old daughter. Her husband could not leave Ukraine. She said Russia’s efforts to justify the attack were daunting.
“When I watch Russian TV, I begin to believe that Ukrainians eat children,” said Putin’s claim that the attack was to “non-nazifi” the Ukrainian government. .. “Their media is so sick that I can’t believe what’s going on.”
According to Alexander Pansov, a Russian writer and professor who also attended the Mansfield Center conference, Putin’s attempt to market the war to his people seems to have been almost successful. Putin’s popularity has actually risen from about 60% to 70% since the beginning of the war, according to a national poll conducted there last week.
Financial firepower
A globally coordinated campaign of economic sanctions against the Russian government and Putin’s wealthy oligarchs aims to reverse that attitude. This includes disconnecting many Russian banks from the SWIFT interbank communication network. This will block the account holder’s financial transactions and wire transfers.
The United States has banned the Central Bank of Russia from trading in dollars. This prevented Russia from using foreign currency holdings to support the value of the ruble. And US authorities have banned many individual Russian oligarchs near Putin from traveling or doing business.
However, the impact can take some time to affect the typical Russian population. Mr Pansov said in Moscow that people are struggling to get cash from banks and the ruble’s value has dropped from $ 71 last October to $ 150.
To date, Russians have not reported any impact on their daily lives, such as food or fuel shortages. This may be due to a lack of reporting space. On Wednesday, Russian authorities blocked the transmission of TV Rain, the last independent television network, and Echo of Moscow, one of Moscow’s oldest radio stations.
Many of TV Rain’s editorial staff have already fled the country, and other journalists are hiding to avoid the opposition Dozhd.
Ukraine since 2014, when Russian-backed militia occupied the eastern part of Ukraine in Donetsk and Luhansk, and Russia forcibly merged the Crimean Peninsula, while Russian troops launched a multifaceted attack on February 24. There is active military harassment against. These conflicts have killed more than 14,000 people.
“It’s frustrating for me that the West basically told Putin for years,” One more step, you’ll be in trouble, “and then,” Oh, no, he took two steps. ” That’s it, “said Eduardo Schocourt of Ukraine-Mizuria. People who follow the event closely.
Shokul appears to have embarked on Putin’s re-establishment of Russia’s international status equivalent to that of the Soviet Union in the 1970s, with economic sanctions having little impact on his ambitions. I agree with many international analysts who are willing to be.
But apart from actively sending NATO and U.S. forces into combat in Ukraine, Shokul finds it worthwhile to impose a financial blockade on both Russia and the external economic sector that supports Russia’s interests. recognized.
“I don’t think the European Union or the United States can strategically bomb Russia,” Chocourt said. “But we should inflict as much pain as possible. We cannot be losers.”
Mary Salotte, a professor of history at the Johns Hopkins Graduate School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC, told a Harvard Kennedy School audience last week that Putin’s mind would probably remain the same. He considers himself a martyr, so his best diplomatic effort is to convince his inner circle and other Russian elites.
“It’s hard to know where this ends,” Sarotte said. “This is probably unlikely, but I hope people around Putin understand that they are becoming an increasingly larger version of North Korea and do not want to live in North Korea. So if there was a way to get people around to see a better future without him … it would be one of the better solutions than many bad options. “
The influence of Montana
Economic sanctions can affect the global crisis. They affect Russia’s ability to pay financially for its actions, from the salaries of soldiers to the income of natural gas and oil (which accounts for about 60% of the Russian economy) that are no longer sold or contracted. I will give you.
That destabilization could slip Russia’s gross domestic product, which is already smaller than Canada and Italy, in a more unfavorable direction. In 2021, it was ranked 64th in the world.
But sanctions provoke a reactionary reaction to the countries that started it.
In Missoura, SG Long Financial Research Director Robrichardson said war and sanctions would withdraw large amounts of Russian and Ukrainian wheat from the market, opening up opportunities for US farmers. However, Russia and Ukraine are also exporting large quantities of fertilizers that are currently in short supply from the global market, raising future costs for crops. That is already reflected in the price increases for grains and meat.
“We are also pumping overnight to see the impact,” Richardson said of the impact of the war on energy supply. “In most places, gas prices are rising 20% to 30%. Diesel futures will rise.”
All of this exacerbates inflation, which has already begun with the economic turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic. Short-term discussions on fuel and food costs can have long-term implications for larger issues, such as the balance between fossil fuels and renewable energy development.
Russia’s economy lags behind most of the developed world, but it has a significant impact on other countries as it ranks third in the world’s oil and gas production. However, rushing to replace fossil fuel sources is now going against international efforts to reduce global warming caused by the burning of coal and oil.
It can affect Montana. In Montana, competition has become a major political battlefield, opening up more public land for oil and gas exploration, supporting failed coal mines, and developing alternatives to wind and solar. As the United States heads for the midterm elections this fall, these political divisions will even filter national affairs.
Volodymyr Zelensky won the Ukrainian presidential election in 2019 and defeated pro-Russian Petro Poroshenko in a landslide. Former US President Donald Trump tried to get Zelensky to investigate the son of current President Joe Biden. This is the effort that led to the first impeachment of Trump before Congress.
Republican Governor Greg Gianforte was the parliamentary representative of Montana in the impeachment in December 2019 and voted against the proceedings. At the time, Montana auditor and Republican Matt Rosendale campaigned against impeachment to replace Gianforte as a member of the House of Representatives when Gianforte gained governor.
Rosendale has become one of three members of the House of Representatives who have declared their support for Ukraine and voted against the March 1 resolution calling for the withdrawal of Russian troops.
Democratic Senator John Tester and Republican Senator Steve Daines participated in a similar Senate resolution in February, accusing Russia of attacking. However, the Senate was unable to pass the February package of Russian sanctions from the Commission on Partial Division. Both Danes and testers on Friday announced support for a bill to block Russia’s gas and oil imports into the United States (which gets about 8% of oil from Russia).
Last week, the grudge was unnoticeable inside Missoula’s first United Methodist Church. The church offers an all-nighter at noon to silently think about the fate of Ukraine and the larger world.
Rev. John Daniels said the quiet hours of noon were of great interest. The church plans to keep the door open until next week.
“This is a way to draw attention to all this pain mistakes that are happening,” Daniels said. “Now prayer is our greatest thing. That’s all.”
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